A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
